An Estimation Of The Diffusion Of Internet: The Case Of Heilongjiang Province In China

Based on the theory of innovation diffusion, we use Bass, Exponential, Logistic and Gompertz models to analyse the Internet diffusion of Heilongjiang Province and try to compare and find a suitable model that can describe its current Internet diffusion state. The result shows that Gompertz model has the best performance in describing its current diffusion. We found that intimation effect is low in the Internet diffusion. Also we found that the Internet diffusion rate will continue to increase and the maximum rate of diffusion is predicted to appear around the year of 2035, and the diffusion will end with about 52.1% penetrated rate. We provide some suggestions for the decision of provincial communications agency (PCA), which will also have reference value for other similar regions.